Theory Of Probability
This means, given normal circumstances, the most logical outcome will prevail.
Now that i've established the meaning i will baffle the scientific world with this hypothetical
You take team A and clone every player on the team, including the coaches, and play them against
one another 100 times with team A(the original team)playing at home every time, and Team A will win more than 50% of the time,
Team B(the exact duplicate)would win less than 50% of the time.
How's that for starting a geeky scientific dispute.
The reason is that playing at home is an advantage, even if the teams are exact duplicates,
whether it's the fans giving the home team the extra positive support, or the officiating crew slightly favouring the home
team(as is usually the case, although much more obvious in a sport like boxing), it's inevitable that the home team has an
edge, given this particular scenario even.
I used the theory of probability on a NFL Football game this week, and i'll share it with you
so you can see how it might apply in another similar circumstance. New England was playing on the road in Miami, and were
the favourites, New England was 5-0 on the road this year, but looking back through previous seasons, even when they were
winning the Super Bowl, the best record they ever had on the road was 6-2, then i also factored in that it was a divisional
game against a team they beat at home earlier in the year, looking back through the years i noticed that these 2 teams split
their 2 games more often than not, in fact, New England lost in Miami as the favourite the previous year after winning their
first game in at home, Miami also did not have a win vs a divisional opponent on the year, something that is not typical of
their play in previous years.
So based on all that I concluded that Miami would win this game, it was the probability
factor, never mind that i think New England is a way better team, that has nothing to do with it, this is one game only, and
one game that pointed to Miami probably winning, and they did, 21-0 at +160 on the money line.
That was just one example, and there are many more
The idea is to establish a probable outcome, completely ignoring personal preference, that
means don't worry about who you think will win or which is the better team, just look at the numbers and decide what numbers
would look more normal when compared with previous form