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NFL Football Tips - Picking A Super Bowl Champion

Picking a Super Bowl Champion
The first thing we have got to find is a team that fits the profile of a Champion, so we go through a list of important factors that a champion must posess...
 
1-Good experienced coaching staff from top to bottom, key on their past performance in the playoffs, some coaches are good at getting players fit, others are better at tactical thinking, and the later it gets in the playoffs, the more important the tactical part is. A coach like Bill Belichik from New England is great tactically, and also a master at preserving his teams energy throughout the season and getting them rested for a big playoff run, i've seen this man win 3 Super Bowls.

2-QB, the most important player on the team is the quarterback, he must be a leader and possess intangeable champ like attributes, coolness under pressure is what sweats my gambling palms, when i see it i know i just hit on a live one, a few perfect examples of that most recently, Ben Roethilsberger from Pittsburgh, i love these come from nowhere guys who just step it up and take over the team, Tom Brady from New England is another example, they can really get a team going and get them into the playoffs full of confidence and ready to kick ass, Tony Romo from Dallas, Vince Young from Tennessee, Philip Rivers from San Diego of 2006-07, they remind me of these guys, i don't like these QB's who have been beaten in the playoffs more than once, guys like Manning from Indianapolis, Plummer from Denver, Green from Kansas City, they are good to bet against because they take a lot of betting action, it also means it's good for us, this way we can get overinflated odds on our sharpie teams and cash out a nice bet, in case you were curious, we had Pit at 50-1 in 2005-06, NE at 40-1 in 2004-05, we had some others that obviously didn't hit, we're not psychic, but the plan is to narrow down our list to a few serious contenders and wait for the right moment to get maximum odds value , it's fun to get behind these teams and just watch em roll in the playoffs, especially at big big odds.

3-Teams with high 3rd and 4th down conversion %, usually a sign they can kick it up a gear when needed, we put a little emphasis on this because it shows a team can pull out a good play when needed, it's like they have a few tricks up their sleeve that they can throw out whenever needed, it also shows the players concentration levels are up to par, we don't want to be in the playoffs with these 3rd down dropped ball receivers, no no, that's not where we want our money to be, so this is a good stat to keep your eye on.

4-Teams who avoid injury to key players, if a key player goes down for the season its usually lights out, the only exception would be a real live player coming in to replace them, but that's rare, in most cases the starter is better, or at least more familiar with the way things are done, stay away from teams like this, it's a bad sign when their key players get season ending injuries.

5-Good balance on offense and defense, can't have one and not the other, it's a team concept, good time possession offenses give the defense rest time, allowing them to perform at higher effectiveness, you've heard them mention several times during a game about how a team is giving their defense a much needed rest, well that's important, especially as the season goes on, you should look at a team and say to yourself is their offense as good as their defense and vice versa, if you have to think about it for a while then you know your team is good, if your team is obviously better in one area then you are out of whack, like a one man see-saw, i actually played for a team like this in high school, our defense was much better than our offense, we were actually told in practice to let our offense complete passes and make plays just to get their confidence up, it was not good, and it's not a good idea to bet on these one dimensional teams, no matter how good their offense or defense might be in comparison to the rest of the league.

6-One of my favourites, Sacks, the 2 finalists last year ranked #1 and #3 in the league in regular season sacks, very important, all great teams had it, the ability to overpower the other teams offensive line and get to their QB, this is good, think back to key 3rd down situations late in a game when you saw a team trying to convert, while the other team gets to their quarterback and sack him or rush
the play, the sack is a defensive attack manouever, applied at key moments, like designed 3rd down blitz plays, if your defense cannot outpower the other teams offense in these situations, then it's not the kind of team you want money on.
 
7-Draft, teams that draft and develop young talent always do better than teams who buy reject superstars to put them over the top, this has been a common trait of almost every champion throughout history, yes, using the draft to build your team has always been the way, the players are taught your brand of football and brought up like your children and developed properly, if a team can draft and develop young talented players they will always be a good team.
 
Those are your 7 keys to glory right there, know your team before you put money on them, and be patient, you will get good odds on the team you like at some point, track the futures market on a weekly basis, and set a good odds value in your mind for the team you want to bet, don't get too greedy or you'll miss your chance of hitting a nice paying futures bet, we generally recommend tracking your team and studying the odds pattern, once you've established their high, try to hit them at minimum 75% of their top value. IE, if team X was 100-1 and dropped to 50-1, hold out and try to get them at no less than 75-1, we hit Pittsburgh at 50-1 in December 2005, just after they lost to Cincinatti, we got lucky and grabbed them at 100% value, as they were never higher than 50-1 at any point in the season, they of course went on to win every game from that point on, and made me look like a genius, but if you look at the criteria for picking a Super Bowl winner above, you will see that they were a perfect fit.

These are the numbers we used to come up with our overall rating of each team when analyzing the contenders.
 
What makes these numbers unique is that they are not only about numerical stats, they are about winning and rewarding winners, because after all, winners win, and if you bet on winners, you will win, sounds simple doesn't it, bet on winners and you will be a winner.
 
Coaching - Lifetime win % + playoff win % bonus + Super Bowl bonus
(you can see a coach's lifetime record at ESPN by going to each teams home page, or here at Pro Football Reference)
 
Quarterback - Win/Loss % + playoff record bonus + Super Bowl bonus
(you can see each players record at Pro Football Reference, it may require you to get some stats manually, but at least they have them, you can see regular season Quarterback W/L records at The Football Database)
 
Under Pressure Conversion - 3rd/4th down conversion %
(you can get these stats at NFL Stats from the official website)
 
Sacks - Team sack total
(you can find these stats at ESPN-Stats, go through each team and look at the total sacks number at the bottom of the defensive stats section)
 
Draft - Number of players in the starting lineup that were acquired via the draft
(you can find this info out by looking at a teams depth chart and viewing the bio's of all the starters, 11 offense and 11 defense, out of the 22 total starters you should have at least 15 that were acquired via the draft)
 
Example Numbers From 2006:

COACHES

Rank
Name
Team
Total
1
Bill Belichik
New England
100
2
Joe Gibbs
Washington
99
3
Mike Shanahan
Denver
84
4
Jim Fox
Carolina
81
5
Brian Billick
Baltimore
80
5
Mike Holmgren
Seattle
80
7
Bill Cowher
Pittsburgh
79
8
John Gruden
Tampa Bay
76
9
Bill Parcells
Dallas
75
10
Andy Reid
Philadelphia
74

QUARTERBACKS

Rank
Name
Team
Total
1
Tom Brady
New England
100
2
Ben Roethilsberger
Pittsburgh
91
3
Jake Delhomme
Carolina
74
4
Brad Johnson
Minnesota
73
5
Donovan McNabb
Philadelphia
69
6
Drew Bledsoe
Dallas
67
7
Kurt Warner
Arizona
57
8
Michael Vick
Atlanta
54
9
Matt Hasselbeck
Seattle
53
9
Peyton Manning
Indianapolis
53

3RD & 4TH DOWN CONVERSIONS

Rank
Team
Total
1
Seattle
100
2
New England
96
3
Indianapolis
94
4
San Diego
89
5
Kansas City
88
6
Denver
87
7
St. Louis
83

SACKS

Rank
Team
Total
1
Seattle
100
2
Miami
98
3
Jacksonville
94
3
Pittsburgh
94
5
Indianapolis
92
5
San Diego
92
7
Carolina
90

DRAFT

Rank
Team
Total
1
Indianapolis
100
2
Philadelphia
95
2
Tennessee
95
4
Pittsburgh
89
4
San Francisco
89
4
Tampa Bay
89
7
St. Louis
84

Explanation Of Our Ratings System And Above Numbers
 
To come up with the numbers we have for each team, we factor in the following stats, which we consider to be the most relevant.
 
-Coaching
-Quarterback
-Under Pressure Offensive Conversions
-Sacks /Defensive Penetration
-Draft Utilization
 
We go through each category for every team, and assign them a number value from 1-100, then we combine all 5 categories, average them out and assign each team a number value, the highest possible rating would be 100, meaning that one team would have to rank #1 overall in all 5 of the above categories, these numbers will change after each game, so adjust them accordingly, if you don't feel like doing it weekly, do it in quarters, 1st quarter of the season, halfway point in the season, 3/4 point of the season, and at the end of the regular season. Once you find a few teams that standout, track them week by week and patiently wait for your spot to bet them, you should always bet them after a loss to get better odds.
 

NFL Football Tips

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